Sohn Conference - analista recomenda posição vendida na moeda brasileira

E hoje, na Sohn Conference, em Nova Iorque, o estrategista Parvinder Thiara, da Athanor Capital, disse esperar por uma redução na taxa SELIC. Sendo assim, o estrategista recomendou que investidores se posicionem na parte curta da curva de juros brasileira, buscando tirar proveito da iminente queda na SELIC. Em paralelo, o analista recomenda também uma posição vendida na moeda brasileira.

Marink Martins

Abaixo, segue o comentário publicado na CNBC:

Parvinder Thiara, Athanor Capital

Investment idea: Receive front end 2-year Brazilian rates & short the Brazilian real (Buy USD calls / BRL puts)

Central to Athanor's thesis are expectations for Brazilian monetary policy. Thiara said that markets are pricing in one of the most aggressive hiking cycles in the country's history, implying that the Brazilian real could be overvalued despite the unlikelihood of a tightening regimen.

"Domestically, the Brazilian economy cannot withdraw the monetary policy the market's pricing in," Thiara said from the conference. "At the current pace of growth... it will take over three years for Brazil to reach [its] previous peak."

Thiara said that low inflation and a wobbly economy better justify monetary easing in Brazil instead of the expected tightening. The fund manager also reiterated claims that Brazil President Jair Bolsonaro is like U.S. President Donald Trump, a fan of lower rates who could spark pressure to cut borrowing costs.

All else constant, higher interest rates tend to buoy the value of a country's currency by attracting foreign investment and demand for the home country's currency.